Election day Winners and Losers

A few days removed from the craziness that was election day, it is now time to sort through the rubble and see where we stand.  There were some surprises and some close calls.  The results nationally really was in stark contrast from the results in Hawaii.  Nationally Republicans benefited from an electorate angry with the slow recovery of the economy.  Locally, Republicans took a huge blow in their hopes of keeping control of the governor’s office.  Now it’s time to break down a few of the winners and losers from this past election in Hawaii and on the mainland.

Winners:

Congressman John Boehner is poised to become the new Speaker of the House. (clevescene.com)

The obvious national winners are the entire Republican Party after they 50+ seat pick up in the House and erasing the Democratic majority in the Senate.  While falling short of controlling both houses, the GOP has a large majority in the House and will be able to prevent many of President Obama’s initiatives from moving forward.  Ohio congressman, John Boehner is lining up to be the new Speaker of the House while Eric Cantor looks to become the new majority WHIP.  A surprising national winner has to be Nevada Senator, Harry Reid.  Reid was able to fend off a tough challenge from Republican candidate and TEA Party favorite, Sharon Angle to gain reelection and keep his spot as Senate Majority Leader.

In Hawaii, the winners have to be the Democratic Party.  The 2010 elections solidified Hawaii’s long-standing tradition of being a blue state.  In fact, Hawaii has the most lopsided state legislature of any state in the nation.  88% of all the members of the Hawaii state legislature are Democrats, beating out Rhode Island which sports 84%.  Sen. Daniel Inouye cruised to a 50 point victory over his Republican challenger while Congresswoman Mazie Hirono easily won reelection with a 20 point margin.  The real surprise came in Hawaii’s 1CD House race with incumbent Charles Djou(R) falling to Colleen Hanabusa(D) by 7 points.  At the first printout, Djou trailed by about 4,000 votes.  However, the subsequent printouts only put the Republican incumbent further behind.  Hanabusa’s victory was the first time Hawaii voters had voted out a US Congressional incumbent.

But of course, the big winner was the Neil Abercrombie/Brian Schatz team.  The Democratic team was able to trounce their GOP counterparts by nearly 100,000 votes.  In fact, the final margin of victory was 17%.  To make matter worse, of Hawaii’s 51 state house districts, Abercrombie was able to win 50 of the 51.  It was surprising to many the sheer size of the victory for the long time US Congressman.  Abercrombie single-handedly took down political giant, Mufi Hannemann and his GOP challenger, Duke Aiona.  Abercrombie used an effective social media campaign to engage with the younger voters and was able to reestablish himself with the older voters whom he once represented while in the Honolulu City Council and Hawaii State Legislature.

Losers:

Governor elect Neil Abercrombie cruised to an impressive 17 point victory on Election night. (daylife.com)

On a night where House Republicans picked up more than 50 seats and Senate Republicans came close to taking the majority, the obvious losers are the Democratic Party.  Democrats across the nation suffered defeat and many incumbents fell.  Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin saw his bid for reelection come up short.  Feingold is best known for his efforts to reform immigration.  The House Democrats will now be a highly outnumbered minority and will be at the will of Republicans.  Over in the Senate, Majority Leader Reid will have some tough fights ahead now that he has a near stalemate with Republicans.  President Obama must also be considered a loser of this election.  He has now lost the majority in the House and has the prospects of a severely weakened Senate.  Now more than ever will he need to sell his ideas to the public and work some magic if he hopes to have a second term.

Locally, the Hawaii GOP was not able to ride the so-called wave of change to victory.  Hawaii Republicans are now left with only a single Senate seat and only a handful of House seats.  Moreover, the Hawaii GOP invested heavily in the Djou and Aiona campaigns.  However, their investments would not produce the returns they anticipated.  A humiliating loss by Aiona was coupled with a bitter defeat for Djou.  Many within the party felt 2010 was the best chance for Hawaii Republicans to take control of the government and to finally solidify itself as a major power in Hawaii.  However, as the printouts were released, Republicans were left to wonder how and why this election turned out to be another drubbing from Hawaii Democrats.

The effects of this election will not be fully felt for another few years.  However, one thing is certain: Hawaii really does buck national trends and chooses to do things a little differently.  Whether this means a better Hawaii or something worse remains to be seen.  At least we now have another couple of years to start the conversation of where our state and this country is heading and hopefully are able to find some solutions along the way.

Polls are closed and now we wait!

—Update 11:44pm—
The second and third printouts have come in. The Aiona and Djou camps have conceded their respective races and thanked their supporters. Aiona trails Abercrombie by nearly 5x his defecit after the first printout. Hanabusa has a 10,000 vote cushion over Djou.

The final printout should be out around 2am. A complete wrap-up will be available on Thursday! Thanks to everyone who stayed with us throughout the night!

—Update 7:56pm—
First printout for Hawaii has Abercrombie up by about 17,000 votes, Hanabusa up by 3,000 votes. Nevada Senator Harry Reid has survived on the back of 90% of Latino vote.

Second printout should be out around 9:30pm.

—-

Polls across Hawaii have now closed. The results are coming in from around the country and are beginning to sort out the winners and losers. This is what we know so far:

Democratic Senators, Russ Feingold(WI) and Blanche Lincoln(AR) have lost their bids for reelection. As it stands, the GOP will have the majority in the House but the Democrats will still hold the majority in the Senate.

The results from Hawaii should begin to trickle in within the next hour with the first printout scheduled for about 6:45PM. The first printout should primarily consist of all the early and absentee voters around the state. Of course, there may still be some absentee ballots which will not be included since the deadline to return absentee ballots to the Office of Elections was 6PM tonight.

We’ll have more updates as the results come in tonight!

Election Day is almost here: Let’s pick the winners!

We are less than 24 hours away from one of the most hard-fought election seasons in recent memory for Hawaii.  Both sides have campaigned vigorously and have aimed to sway voters all around the state.  Millions of dollars have been spent and countless hours of television have been taken over by political ads for one side or another.  The big race is for governor and the top two contenders, Neil Abercrombie and Duke Aiona have not held back on the punches.

Desperate America Report has looked at a few of the larger races and spoken to some of Hawaii’s residents on who they think will win.  Here is our breakdowns of the Governor, US Senate, and both US House races.

Governor:

This race has seen $6 million in spending combined.  Both men have flooded the air waves with ads attacking the other as well as fluff pieces on themselves.  Abercrombie took a week off after the September primary election victory of Mufi Hannemann and that may cost him in the end.  Most polls have put Abercrombie’s once double-digit lead somewhere near 4%.  Of course, many still feel the Democratic candidate still has the sizable edge and is still in control.  The Democratic party has done well to unify after a tough primary season and former adversary, Mufi Hannemann, has come around and publicly supported Abercrombie.

Aiona did not face a very tough challenge in the primary and was able to save most of his funds for the general election battle.  He has been aided in large part by the Republican Governors Association who have spent much money for television ads since Aiona became the Republican nominee.  Aiona has looked to distance himself from the Lingle administration as well as embrace certain aspects of his former boss.  He has also faced questions about his ties to a controversial religious group.  Aiona has done well to close the gap between himself and his Democratic challenger.

Outcome: Aiona’s hopes hinge on his ability to get enough of the independent voters away from Abercrombie.  The former US Congressman, Abercrombie has a sizable advantage on Oahu having served as the CD1 representative for the last 20 years.  Abercrombie is also aided by the traditionally large Democratic voter turnout on election day.  However, Abercrombie must hope not to see a repeat of 2002 when Republican Linda Lingle edged out a victory over a scrambling Mazie Hirono.  That election showed the need for party unity when moving towards the general election.  Dems have done well to bring the party together.  Desperate America Report sees this race coming down to the final printout with Neil Abercrombie winning by a 5-8% margin.

US Senate:

Dan Inouye has had little to worry about from his Republican challenger, Cam Cavasso.  The longtime Senate power broker has still made the rounds at various rallies and parties within the Democratic Party.  Cavasso has done well to remain in the conversation by running some very entertaining ads.  However, there is little evidence this race will be close.

Rundown: Inouye will be reelected by a margin near 30%.  It is a tad smaller than what would have been expected a few months ago, but it was still never that close.

 

It is time to complete our civic duties and vote. This election has serious implications for Hawaii's future!

 

US House CD1: Djou and Hanabusa have been battling ever since the special election this Spring.  Both candidates have spent a ton of money and have sent a ton of barbs in the direction of the other.  Similar to the Governor’s race, the key to victory is which candidate has the independent voters.  Djou has looked to keep a distance from the local and national Republican parties in an attempt to portray himself as an independent thinker.  Hanabusa has pledged her support to the Obama administration and has received support from the President himself in robocalls and emails.

Rundown: For much of the build up to the election, Djou has held a lead of about 5%.  However, many polls have seen that lead fluctuate and sometimes become a deficit.  In the end the independent voters go away from the traditional Democrat Hanabusa and help reelect the Republican Djou.  However, this will be a margin of victory inside of 3%.

US House CD2: John Willoughby has done his best to chip away at the lead of incumbent Mazie Hirono.  However, Hirono has been able to keep a sizable double-digit lead through most of the election season over her Tea Party challenger.  An endorsement from conservative darling, Sarah Palin, seems to have done little to sway the normally liberal neighbor islands.  Hirono has done well to state her case and has repeatedly chosen to talk about herself and ignore her opponent entirely.

Rundown: This is another one of the probable routes.  Willoughby has always been fighting an uphill battle since taking the Republican nomination.  Hirono has traveled the state and solidified her support.  Don’t expect this race to be within 25%.  Hirono should win easy.

There you go ladies and gents.  It will be a fun night come November 2nd.  Follow us on Twitter for live election results and reactions.  And please remember: GET OUT THERE AND VOTE ON NOVEMBER 2ND!

Abercrombie puts Hanneman on defensive.

The recent debate between Mufi Hannemann and Neil Abercrombie was nothing short of interesting. The candidates opened with their respective talking points. Hannemann pointed to his executive experience and his time in the private sector. Abercrombie pointed to his love of Hawaii and his time in the United States Congress. Both candidates waited a few questions to begin the fire fight.

An interesting moment came when the subject of taxes were brought up. Abercrombie noted a recent story in which Honolulu Concilman, Romy Cachola, alerted the media of the huge tax increases to residents in Kalihi. Abercrombie put Hannemann on the spot as the former Congressman asked Hannemann to take responsiblity for the oversight in the area’s rezoning. Hannemann argued that the mayor has no authority on the matter and insinuated that Councilman Cachola released the information in part to help Abercrombie. Seizing on the moment, Abercrombie suggested that Hannemann either approved the rezoning or he was not aware of it. The latter would hit Hannemann’s competence.

Neil Abercrombie and Mufi Hannemann face off.

Hannemann was on the defensive for most of the night. He took time in the opening statement to apologize for the recent mailer comparing the candidates. The brochure listed the candidates’ hometowns, wives, educational and work experience, and listed Abercrombie’s sole accomplishment as being the winner of a beard contest. The mailing received negative reactions from Gov. Linda Lingle and US Senator Daniel Inouye. Abercrombie repeatedly brought up the mailer in accusing Hannemann of downplaying the importance of the University of Hawaii. Hannemann expressed his appreciation for the University of Hawaii and agreed that it is a good school. Hannemann accused Abercrombie of stretching the truth and spinning the issue out of control.

Both men agreed on ending the practice of sending Hawaii inmates to mainland prisons and focusing on the economy and job creation as the top priority. It will be interesting to see how the two candidates treat each other in the coming weeks and debates. Abercrombie leads in the polls over Hannemann, however, the primary is still four weeks away. Many things can happen between now and September 18th.

Stay tuned to Desperate America Report and the Honolulu Coffee Party Examiner for all your election news and updates.  Follow us on twitter to keep up with any candidate events or forums.

Doing the impossible: Can anyone beat Daniel Inouye?

How do you unseat one of the most beloved politicians in Hawaii’s history?  How do you beat someone who has helped steer millions of dollars towards Hawaii’s economy?  Those are some of the questions facing the candidates running for the US Senate against incumbent, Daniel Inouye.  Last week we introduced you to them.  This time we figure out where things will fall.

Sen. Dan Inouye is seeking to remain as the most senior member of the US Senate

Daniel Inouye became the President Pro-Tempore of the US Senate upon the death of long-time friend and colleague, Robert Byrd.  It is a position with considerable power and puts him fourth in the line of succession for the Presidency of the United States.  Inouye has held the position of US Senator since 1962.  He has served eight consecutive terms in Senate and is currently the most senior member.  Inouye served in the famous 442nd Regimental Combat Team during World War II.  He earned the distinguished Medal of Honor for his service.

During his time in the Senate, Inouye has gotten numerous measures through Congress which help Hawaii’s people.  He has provided over $40 million for the Pacific Basin Agricultural Research Center in Hilo.  He has also secured $17 million for the Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyards.  Having established himself as the king of the earmark, it will be very difficult for any of the candidates this election to unseat Sen. Inouye due to the large amounts of money he brings into the state.

The only Democratic challenger to Inouye, Andy Woerner is looking to pull off a Cinderella type effort to gain the nomination.  A political novice, Woerner resides on the Big Island of Hawaii with his wife and child.  He is an Operational Manager for a scuba diving company.  He credits the campaign and election of Barack Obama in 2008 for his sudden urge to run for office.  He has admitted that he knows little about the insider games of Washington D.C.  However, he pledged to fight for the forgotten voices of the electorate.  Woerner is not expected to do much against the popular Inouye.

Woerner is making waves with his push for term limits and an overhaul of the campaign finance laws.  He echoes the familiar tones of the Republican Revolution of 1994 in his attempt to impose some sort of term limits for Congress.  He has already signed a contract to serve no more than two terms in office.  Woerner would like to see an increase in the transparency of campaign finances.  He currently points to the recent Supreme Court decision which allowed corporations to donate money to politicians under the same rules as an individual citizen.  It will be interesting to see just how much support he will receive.

Lloyd Jeffrey Mallan is the lone Libertarian candidate for US Senate.  Mallan currently serves as Project Manager for Artful Expressions of Hawaii, an internet marketing firm.  Having earned a bachelor’s degree from Penn State University, Mallan has a history in theater and music.  The Libertarian is looking to capture a Ron Paul following with his ideas running parallel to the popular Texas Congressman.  Mallan runs on the traditional Libertarian principles of eliminating all taxes, privatizing all government services including the police force and prisons, and reducing the size of the military.

Heading the charge for the Republican Party is Cam Cavasso.  Cavasso served as State Representative for district 51 on Oahu from 1985-1991.  The former State Rep. has been the financial advisor at Mass Mutual Financial Group for the last 22 years.  Cavasso also owns a small farm in the Waimanalo area.  Cavasso has launched a social media campaign with Facebook, Twitter, Flickr and utilizing Foursquare as a way to meet him.  The move is an attempt to get the votes of the tech savvy crowd and younger generation.  Cavasso is the favorite for the GOP nomination but will need to expand his base in order to close the gap with the Democrats.  He runs on a platform of immediate cuts in payroll taxes, a federal balanced budget amendment to the constitution, and a return to traditional values.

Republican John Roco is also a political newcomer.  A conservative, Roco works as a social worker for young children.  He has previously worked as an instructor at San Bernadino Valley College.  Roco is a strong Catholic and points to his faith as the reason he has decided to run for office.  He is the obvious underdog against Cavasso but will rely on his traditional conservative roots to gain support within the Republican Party.  Roco has a platform aimed at extending all of the Bush tax cuts, defining marriage as between a man and a woman, and repealing the recent healthcare reforms.

The Democratic primary will likely shape up with Sen. Inouye winning by a land slide.  It is expected that he will face Cam Cavasso in the November general election.  Inouye will enter the contest with a sizeable advantage in funding and will have his years of service in our nation’s capitol on his side.  Inouye is probably the most liked politician in Hawaii and it will be a near miracle if anyone were to unseat him.  Cavasso will put up a good fight, however, Inouye will be reelected and will have another term to add to his legacy as the “King of the Earmark.”

Don’t forget to join us next week as we take a shot at handicapping the races for Honolulu Mayor and Hawaii Governor.  It should make for some interesting conversations at the water cooler.

Get Involved: Complacency breeds Incompetence!

Who can unseat Daniel Inouye?

Sen. Inouye has served in the US Senate since 1962.

With the recent passing of Sen. Robert Byrd, Hawaii’s own, Daniel Inouye became the President Pro-Tempore of the US Senate.  It is a position with considerable power and puts him fourth in the line of succession for the Presidency of the United States.  Inouye has held the position of US Senator since 1962.  He has served eight consecutive terms in Senate and is currently the most senior member.  Having established himself as the king of the earmark, it will be very difficult for any of the candidates this election to unseat Sen. Inouye.

The only Democratic challenger to Inouye, Andy Woerner is looking to pull off a Cinderella type effort to gain the nomination.  A political novice, Woerner resides on the Big Island of Hawaii with his wife and child.  He is an Operational Manager for a scuba diving company.  Woerner is not expected to do much against the popular Inouye.  However, Woerner is making waves with his push for term limits and an overhaul of the campaign finance laws.

Lloyd Jeffrey Mallan is the lone Libertarian candidate for US Senate.  Mallan currently serves as Project Manager for Artful Expressions of Hawaii, an internet marketing firm.  Having earned a bachelor’s degree from Penn State University, Mallan has a history in theater and music.  Mallan runs on the traditional Libertarian principles of eliminating all taxes, privatizing all government services, and reducing the size of the military.

Heading the charge for the Republican Party is Cam Cavasso.  Cavasso served as State Representative for district 51 on Oahu from 1985-1991.  The former State Rep. has been the financial advisor at Mass Mutual Financial Group for the last 22 years.  Cavasso also owns a small farm in the Waimanalo area.  He runs on a platform of immediate cuts in payroll taxes, a federal balanced budget amendment to the constitution, and traditional values.

Republican John Roco is also a political newcomer.  A conservative, Roco works as a social worker for young children.  He has previously worked as an instructor at San Bernadino Valley College.  Roco is a strong Catholic and points to his faith as the reason he has decided to run for office.  Roco has a platform aimed at extending all of the Bush tax cuts, defining marriage as between a man and a woman, and repealing the recent healthcare reforms.

Also running for the US Senate are Jim Brewer(G), Jeff Jarrett(N), and Eddie Pirkowski(R).

The chance to unseat Sen. Daniel Inouye is the grand prize in this race.  After the September primary, join us as we go in-depth with the remaining candidates.  Stay tuned tomorrow for a look at the Honolulu Mayoral race.

Get Involved: Complacency breeds Incompetence!